Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
