Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
